UPDATE (10:35 am): The tropical low in the southwest Caribbean has been upgraded to Tropical Depression #11. At 10:00 am, EST the newly designated depression was located near 11.6 N and 82.0W. Sustained winds were at 35-mph and central barometric pressure was 1006 MB (29.71"). The system was moving northwest at 8-mph. The depression is expected to make landfall on the Nicaraguan coast as a tropical storm, but then weaken before it moves back out over the Caribbean.

A well-organized low in the southwest Caribbean, east of Costa Rica, is likely to develop into tropical depression #9 or Tropical Storm Ida today. Satellite images and surface reports indicate that the system may already have intensified and reconnaissance aircraft will investigate the area this afternoon.

Although the system, currently mostly stationary, is expected to drift north or north-northwest over time into the northwest Caribbean,The overal weather pattern continues to make it unlikely that the system will affect the northwest Gulf of Mexico.

Meanwhile, closer to home moisture over the southern Bay of Campeche is likely to move north by this weekend, bringing clouds and increase humidity levels back to the area. An advancing cool front and low pressure trough may help to set-off showers or thunderstorms by late Saturday or Sunday.

Below is a satellite view of the disturbance east of Costa Rica:

Long-term models suggest that the system will eventually drift into the northwest Caribbean off the coast of Belize (track courtesy of South Florida Water Management District):

Fortunately, high levels off wind shear continue to persist over the northern Gulf of Mexico. As long as this continues, the enviroment in our area remains unfavorable for tropical development (map courtesy of the University of Wisconsin):