O.K., so we've made it through June without a named storm. Scratch one month down and four to go.

I know. Hurricane season doesn't end until November 30, which makes five to go. But, since the Texas coast has never had a November storm, we can pretty much write off our season by mid to late October.

At any rate, I have checked all the records on July tropical storms and hurricanes back to 1851 (157 years of data) and here is what I find that we can expect climatologically for July. In the 157 years analyzed, at least one named storm (tropical storm or hurricane) has formed in the month of July in 61 of the years. Putting this statistically, we can expect a storm to form in about 4 out of every 10 Julys (38.85% to be exact). Looking at it positively, that means that we will not see a named storm in 6 of 10 Julys.

Of course, we are not so concerned about storms that form way out in the Atlantic and never get anywhere near the Gulf of Mexico. So, I looked at how many July storms formed or moved into the Gulf. We find that 35 years have at least one July storms in the Gulf of Mexico. That comes out to 22.3% (or about 1 in 5 Julys).

Fortunately, not all Gulf storms come close enough to Galveston to impact us with rain and wind. Nor are all of these destructive, but a few are. In looking at the historical record, we can see that 15 years have seen a tropical storm or hurricane come close enough to Galveston to have a noticeable impact on our weather. This translates into 9.5% of the years, or a little less than one time a decade. Since we've already had Hurricane Claudette in 2003, hopefully we have had our July storm for this decade.

Unfortunately, probability doesn't work that way. What happened in 2003 has no discernible effect on what may happen this year. But, at least we know what the historical odds are. Naturally, the biggest influence on whether we will see a storm this year relates to how the overall weather patterns unfold as we move through the month. So far, the meteorological sciences haven't advanced enough to see that far ahead with any accuracy. So, we are left with our statistics, which at least tell us what has occurred over very long periods of time.

Most July storms have not been all that severe in Galveston. A few have been serious. Among the most notable July tropical villains are the  1909, 1934 and the 1943 hurricanes, as well as Tropical Storm Claudette in 1979. Claudette was notable for its record-shattering rains, widespread flooding on the mainland and street flooding in Galveston. Wind and tides were not much of a factor, however. The second Claudette in July, 2003 is notable for being the most recent July hurricane to impact this area.

Below are tracking maps of the 1909 Hurricane, the 1943 Hurricane and Tropical Storm Claudette (1979) for your information (coutesy of Wikipeida and NOAA):

1909 Hurricane Track:

1943 Hurricane Track:

Tropical Storm Claudette Track: