This information comes with a warning. From the personal point of view, a hurricane season is judged not by the number of storms, but by how many, if any, impact our particular area. One direct hit in a year with few storms is worse than no impact in a year with many storms.

That being said, there is some very encouraging news out of the UKMET (United Kingdom Meteorological Office), which released their 2009 tropical storm forecast last Thursday.

In their season forecast, UKMET is predicting a well-below normal season for the Atlantic Basin with 6 named storms being the most likely number in their view. This is 50% below the long-time norm of 12.4 named storms per season. By contrast, there were 15 named storms in 2008, 12 in 2007, 9 in 2006, 25 in 2005 and 15 in 2004.

UKMET's forecasts first gained credibility when they forecast a below normal season, when all the other long-term forecasters were predicting an above normal number of named storms. Last year, they were right on the mark with their prediction of 15 storms exactly matching the number that appeared.

The UKMET uses a dynamical prediction model (called GLOSEA) that looks at upper-air and pressure patterns across the globe. They use an index, called ACE (accumulated cyclone energy) to help compute the number of likely storms.
For 2009, the ACE index is projected to be around 60, compared with 141 last year, 71 in 2007, 76 in 2006, 243 in 2005 and 225 in 2004.

The UKMET outlook continues a downward trend in forecasts from NOAA and from the Tropical Meteorology Project at Colorado State, which are predicting a near to slightly below normal season in 2009, with NOAA calling for 14 named storms this year and the Tropical Meteorology Project pegging 11 named storms this year.

Now whether UKMET is on the mark this year and whether storms will stay away from (regardless of their total number) are open questions.

Still, I really like this trend I am seeing and I certainly was happy to see UKMET's season forecast!

Below is a graphic showing UKMET's 2009 season outlook (courtesy of UKMET Office)

Next is UKMET's graphic showing their ACE Index forecast compared with long-term norms: