To clarify the topic a little, I should say "why the Atlantic Basin (i.e. the tropical Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean) is inactive". Actually, there is a depression in the Pacific off the Mexican coast and tropical activity in the far western Pacific.

But, the tropics closer to home and the area we worry about, remains blessedly inactive.

Actually, part of the reason for the dearth of activity so far is simply climatological. Only about 50% of years have a named storm in June. Since we have had named storms in June the past six years, we are probably overdue for a relatively guiet June. Hurricanes appear in June only once out of every 4-6 years. So, if we do not see a storm through the end of the month, it would not be that unusual.

In addition to climatology, there are some very real factors suppressing tropical activity in the Atlantic Basin so far this season. First, upper-level wind shear is running high and this tends to put a damper on storm development. Second, the Bermuda High is placed far to the east of its usual position this year, allowing, in part, dry air to move into the far eastern Atlantic and also dry, high pressure to build over Texas and the Gulf of Mexico. Third, water temperatures in parts of the Atlantic continue to run a little below normal for this time of year, though there is plenty of warm water in the central Atlantic, much of the Caribbean and most of the Gulf of Mexico to suffice for storm formation.

At any rate, for the Gulf of Mexico and our more immediate environment, it is a hot, dry upper-level high and wind shear that is tending to keep the Gulf storm free. Although this high pressure area may shift enough west to allow some rain late next week, it will still tend to keep conditions in the Gulf unfavorable. At least, that's how it looks as of today.

So with that said, the maps below will help to illustrate some of the factors I have been talking about above.

The map immediately below (courtesy of NOAA) shows dry air (represented by (represented by the blue and green shades)  flowing into much of the central and eastern Atlantic, as well as into the northwest Gulf of Mexico. As you know, tropical systems do not like dry air!

The next map shows wind shear across the Atlantic and Gulf, with areas of highest wind shear colored yellow, orange or red.

Finally, the map below shows areas where sea surface temperatures are running below or above normal. Notice the large area of below normal sea surface water temperatures in the east-central tropical Atlantic and parts of the southwest Caribbean. Of course, you might also notice that water temperatures are now running slightly above normal across the Gulf and parts of the eastern Caribbean. So, it is a mixed picture right now. Still, the overall pattern across the Tropical Atlantic and associated bodies of water remains fairly unfavorable for much development and that is good news at this point. Of course, we cannot relax completely, because even though conditions remain fairly poor, there is more than enough heat to produce a storm should the overall pattern change a little.