Predicting weather is a risky endeavor. When all indications point to a fairly certain outcome, circumstances suddenly produce very different results.

Certainly that has been the case today (Monday, January 3). Everything suggested a very good chance of rain during the morning hours. Plenty of warm, moist air was available at the surface and an upper-level disturbance was moving eastward across southeast Texas, providing ample instability for showers and thunderstorms. But, as the morning wears on, it has become clear that the expected rains have pretty much fizzled out and we will see little rain this weekend.

Now, all the factors point to a good chance of rain on Monday. In fact, some indicators are suggesting we could get heavy rainfall over southeast Texas by the time drier air leads to clearing skies on Tuesday.

A cold front is expected to move into southeast Texas and out into the Gulf of Mexico late Sunday. A fairly potent upper-level system is again expected to move eastward across Texas on Monday. With warm air overriding the chilly air at the surface and ample instability aloft, forecasters are again expecting decent rainfall over the area.

Will the weather unfold this time as expected? Certainly I am a little wary after what happened with this last system today. However, I am willing to bet that we will probably see some decent rainfall on Monday and I am planning to keep my umbrella handy just in case.

Below is a forecast map and a precipitation outlook map for Monday (both courtesy of NOAA):