The projected five day track for Hurricane Ike has trended west this entire weekend, raising the potential threat to our area significantly. The good news is that the long-term track of Ike is still highly uncertain, especially in the six to eight day time-frame. The bad news is that many of the possible scenarios for Ike's long-term track are problematic for our area.

So, what is expected with Ike and why?

The major driver with Ike currently, and for the coming week, is a high pressure ridge that extends southwest across the Northern Gulf of Mexico. This is pushing Ike on a west to west-northwest path towards the Gulf and may continue to force it westward as the week continues.  One wild card with this scenario is a low pressure wave and trough that should move across the middle of the country in the next 2-3 days. This should weaken the high pressure ridge over the northern Gulf some and allow Ike to move somewhat further north. Originally, this wave was expected to weaken the ridge considerably allowing Ike to take a fairly significant northward turn (and keeping it east of us). Now, it increasingly felt that this weakening will be minor and only shift Ike slightly further north. Moreover, it is felt that the high pressure ridge will build back strongly after the wave passes, forcing Ike to again turn in a more westerly manner (as depicted on the latest five-day track projection).

Another scenario for the long-run was that a cold front moving south across the Plains into Texas this weekend could slow Ike's westward movement and then turn it sharply north (again possibly keeping the storm to our east if the timing is right). Now, unfortunately, the front appears to be weaker and slower than originally thought. This would either delay the northward turn until it is too late for us, or would simply be too weak of an influence to have a big impact on its landfall location.

On the plus side, it is still quite premature to place too much stock in any one scenario. Moreover, 6-8 day projections tend to be highly unreliable, so in a few days or outlook on this system may be totally different.

In any case, this blog will be updated as needed all this week and will continue to be updated from Galveston Island, even if the storm does threaten our area.

Below is a link to a satellite view of Ike (courtesy of the National Hurricane Center) a projected weather map for this next Saturday showing possible weather patterns at that time and a projected location for Ike (courtesy of NOAA). Also, below is the latest National Hurricane Center five-day track projection

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/avn-l.jpg

Drier air and a weak cool front should bring us pretty decent weekend weather, with plenty of sunshine, slightly cooler nighttime temperatures and seasonably hot afternoons (see forecast map below, courtesy of NOAA). This should provide a decent antidote to the anxiety that Gustav brought us last week

Unfortunately, we cannot ignore the tropics completely yet, especially a storm by the name of Ike. Long-term projections show the system moving west to near Cuba in five days. There are differences in how the models handle the storm after that point, but some suggest it could continue heading west towards the Yucatan Channel. Below are two maps (the first a five day track projection from the National Hurricane Center and the second a seven day map projection, courtesy of NOAA, showing a possible location for Ike at that point in time. It is all still very early and much could change, but we probably need to monitor this system to see what changes do occur over time.

A weakened Tropical Storm Gustav is moving north towards Arkansas. having made little impact in Galveston. Sure we had excellent waves for the surfing crowd and the storm scared a few tourists away, but other than winds of 26-mph and a gust of 35-mph, the weather here was pretty tame overall.

Unfortunately, the tropics remain quite active. Fortunately, most of the systems do not appear to be much threat to us. Tropical Storm Hanna appears likely to head up the East Coast. Tropical Storm Josephine is expected to ultimately turn north into the Atlantic. Only Tropical Storm Ike appears to have the potential to enter the Gulf of Mexico and that threat, even if it materializes, will take awhile to appear.

In the meantime, a weak cool front moving into Texas on the backside of Gustav, should bring drier and slightly cooler weather to the area later this week, though moisture should increase again by this coming weekend.

Below are graphics (courtesy of NOAA), showing  Hanna's official projected path and a model array showing the projected paths for Tropical Storm Ike. Also, is a 7-day weather map showing Ike near the Florda Keys:

UPDATE 8 p.m.-The Special Marine Warning for the Galveston area has expired. A small craft advisory remains in effect until 5 a.m. tomorrow morning. Look for more on Gustav, Hanna and Ike tomorrow.

The National Weather Service has issued a special marine warning for Galveston Bay and adjacent coastal waters.

A rain band, approaching rapidly from the north, is capable of producing wind gusts in excess of 40-mph.

The squall should move through the area quickly this evening.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=hgx&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=no

UPDATE: 10 a.m, CDT: Gustav is moving inland over south Louisiana as a Category 2 hurricane with sustained winds of 110-mph. At that time, the storm was centered near 29.2 N and 90.8 W and was moving just a little south of due northwest at 16-mph. Central pressure was 955 MB (28.20"). The storm should continue weakening as it moves across Louisiana and into east Texas.

Hurricane Gustav is making landfall in Louisiana this morning just south of Houma. At 7 am, CDT, the center of Gustav was located near 28.8 N and 90.3 W. The storm is generally moving northwest at 16-mph, though it has taken a little jog to the west over the past couple of hours. Sustained winds were estimated at 115-mph and central barometric pressure was 954 MB (28.17").

Gustav is expected to continue in a generally northwest direction across Louisiana with a turn to the west or west-northwest as it nears the Texas border. On this path, effects in Galveston will be fairly minimal, with gusty north to northwest winds, rough offshore seas and a few passing showers or thunderstorms. Of course, if Gustav were to continue moving in  a more westerly direction, then these effects would be increased. In the longer run,  many models expect Gustav to stall and drift around northeast Texas. If it does this, our rain chances could increase some as deep tropical moisture gets pulled in from the south by the system. In any case, the bulk of rainfall should be to our north unless Gustav takes an unexpected turn to the southwest. The wind field in Gustav is fairly large (see graphic from National Hurricane Service), so the wind we can expect here is highly dependent on Gustav's path today and tomorrow: Also, below is the Lake Charles radar and a satellite view, which will provide excellent views of Gustav's progress today:

At 4 pm, CDT, Category 3 Hurricane Gustav was located near 26.4 N and 87.3 W. The storm was moving northwest at 18-mph with 115-mph and a central barometric pressure of 957 MB (28.26"). At that time the National Hurricane Center extended hurricane warnings westward to High Island and shifted the official projected landfall location slighlty westward on the Louisiana coast.

While any westward shift causes some concern to us here on the Island, it represents a minor adjustment and the projected landfall site is still nearly 200 miles east of here. Also, on the plus side, the hurricane is now not expected to intensify any prior to landfall. While the National Hurricane Center states that further slight adjustments to the west may be required due to a minor turn to the west in about 12-hours, they anticipate no major changes in the track between now and landfall tomorow in Louisiana. Wind speed probabilities remain quite low for Galveston in contrast to areas to our east, with only a 16% probability of 34-knot sustained winds here, 5% chance of 50-knot winds and 2% chance of 64-knot winds.

So, while we need to monitor this system closely, it still appears very much as though it will come ashore in Louisiana. At any rate, below is the latest model array (courtesy of South Florida Water Management District). Also, is a satellite view of Gustav and a rainfall projection map for mid-week (courtesy of NOAA):

Gustav continues to maintain a fairly rapid northwest movement this morning and computer models increasingly are pinpointing the east-central Louisiana coast as the probable location for landfall. Gustav's rapid movement means that the storm will make landfall before the weather pattern causes a  westward shift in its path. If the storm behaves as expected today, the Galveston area will be spared any significant impact from the storm as it makes landfall. We should see gusty north to northwest winds, rough seas off-shore and may see a few stray rainbands reach the area by Monday and Tuesday.

At 7 a.m. CDT, Gustav was located near 24.7 N and 85.5 W. Sustained winds had decreased to 120-mph, making the storm a Category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Central pressure had risen to 960 MB (28.35") as the storm moved northwest at 16-mph. Some re-strenghtening is expected today as Gustav moves over a warm Gulf loop current, but then some weakening is expected prior to landfall due to cooler waters in the northern Gulf and a predicted increase in upper-level wind shear.

Beyond that, the impact of Gustav depends on its subsequent long-term movement and speed. Most models expect Gustav to move northwest across Louisiana and then turn west into East Texas. At that time, some models expect Gustav to slow down and possibly even drift around for awhile. If that were to occur, we would see increased rain chances by mid-week. It the storm continues steadily northwest, then our rain chances will be diminished.

At any rate, below is the latest model array (courtesy of South Florida Water Management District). Also, is a satellite view of Gustav and a rainfall projection map for mid-week (courtesy of NOAA):

At 5 pm, EDT today, Hurricane Gustav was located near 22.1 N and 82.9 W. Sustained winds had increased to 150-mph, making the hurricane a solid Category 4. Central pressure had dropped to 942 MB (27.82"). The storm was moving northwest at 15-mph.

For those of us in Galveston, it is important to note that the official track and many of the models continue to pinpoint the central Louisiana coast as the most likely landfall location. This would be good news for us, but bad news for our neighbors to the east. The consistency of these projected paths offer hope that the system may not pull too many surprises prior to landfall and our area may be spared most of the severe weather associated with such a severe hurricane. On the other hand, models still depict a turn to the west after landfall. This would bring heavy rains and even some strong winds to east Texas by mid-week. We may see some gale force gusts and a few heavy rainbands along the coast. Of course, seas will be very rough, though our strongest winds from the storm should be off-shore, so tides will not be an issue IF the storm behaves as predicted.

Below are the latest model arrays (courtesy of the South Florida Water Management District), a map of the latest official track and a map of the highest percentages are for winds in excess of 50-knot (both courtesy of the National Hurricane Center):

Gustav intensified into a major hurricane this morning with 120-mph sustained winds. At 8 a.m., EDT, Gustav was located 225 mile east-southeast of the western tip of Cuba near 20.8 N nad 81.6 W. Central pressure had dropped to 955 MB (28.30"). The storm had lurched to the north-northwest overnight, but is expected to resume a northwest track at 12-mph today. On this path, official projections place Gustav near the central Louisiana coast on Tuesday.

While the official track puts the center of Gustav safely to our east (placing us on the weaker western side), many questions still remain. Some models (see model array below) have the storm slow or stall prior to landfall and then move west or southwest. Others have this occur after landfall and a few do not see this eventuality at all. Of course, each of these scearios (if they were to pan out) would have very different effects on our weather here locally. So, while the official track still looks pretty good for us, we must still monitor this system closely as conditions could become much more dangerous with any turn to the west or southwest.

If the storm tracks across Lousiaiana into East Texas, we would be on the fringe of heavy rainfall and might see some fairly impressive squalls here. Again, speed and the track actually taken will impact us the most. So, the key word this morning is for watchful waiting. With 3-5 day projections being so uncertain and the possibility of Gustav stalling, slowing down or shifting directions, the storm may prove to be very unpredictable as it nears landfall.

Below is a rainfall projection map for Tuesday night through Thursday, showing potential rainfall amounts as the result of Gustav:

Gustav regained hurricane strength as it moved through the northern Caribbean today and further intensification is expected as the storm moves into the southeast Gulf of Mexico. At 5 pm, EDT, the center of Gustav was located near 19.2 N and 79.7 W. Sustained winds were 75-mph and central pressure was down to 980 MB (28.94"). The hurricane is moving northwest at 12-mph.

Model trends today have pinpointed the central Lousiana coast as the most likely landfall spot, though two high regarded models (the UKMET and NOGAPS) continue to show a west and southwest turn towards Texas prior to landfall. Since uncertainty remains high with this storm, watchful waiting appears to be the best option at this time.

Below is the latest model array from the South Florida Water Management District:. Also shown below (courtesy of NOAA) is the 48-hour weather map showing Gustav and Hanna as well as the high pressure ridge over the northeast extending southwest into the northern Gulf and the low pressure trough over the Plains. These two features will influence Gustav's movements over the next 3-days or so.

Thanks to Gustav's rather slow movement, it appears as though Galveston will experience a rather typical Labor Day weekend, weatherwise, with partly cloudy skies, seasonably hot temperatures, and perhaps a scattered shower or thunderstorm. Our weather next week, however, remains very uncertain as long-term models continue to differ significantly.

Probably the most unsettling trend, has been the tendency of some of the models and forecast packages to send Gustav more to the west right before or after landfall. Given the fact, that the official projection places landfall 125 to 150 miles to our east (on the west-central Louisiana coast), it wouldn't take much of a westward turn to significantly alter our weather. On the other hand, it wouldn't take much change in the track to the east to completely put us out of harm's way. Still, the latest official track puts Gustav just inland over Louisiana on Wednesday, moving west-northwest on a path that would take it within 100 miles of the Island. If this path were to hold, we would expect to see some gusty winds and rain as the system moves towards East Texas.

So, we are right where we were 24-hours ago: dealing with a lot of uncertainty. I've included the latest model array courtesy of the South Florida Water Management District. A map of the latest official track projection (courtesy of the National Hurricane Center) and this morning's satellite image of the storm (courtesy of NOAA):

Tropical Storm Gustav is nearing hurricane intensity this morning and appearing as though it will be one of those storms that challenge forecasters. Overnight, Gustav remained mostly stationary, drifting slowly west-southwest. This morning at 7:30 am, the center of the storm was located near 17.8 N and 75.6. Top winds were back up to 70-mph and central barometric pressure was down to 988 MB (29.14"). The storm was expected to begin a slow westward movement and gradually shift to a west-northwest path. Official projections still center on Louisiana, though they have shifted a little west since last night.

All of this is troubling for those liviing in this area. The storm is expected to track west-northwest and northwest around a high pressure ridge extending from the northeast into the northern Gulf of Mexico. The stronger this ridge is and the longer it takes to weaken, the further west the storm will likely track. A low pressure trough and cool front moving into the Plains is expected to weaken the ridge and nudge it eastward. This would provide the opening for Gustav to head in a more northerly direction. Further complicating matters is the fact that some models suggest that Gustav may stall or slow down considerably as it nears the coast, and may even head west or southwest at that point. This would result if the high pressure behind the cool front moves east, blocking Gustav's northward trek. In other words, there are more questions than answers this morning and we all need to monitor this system closely.

Below is the latest model array for Gustav, courtesy of the South Florida Water Management District:

Also, is a map showing the current projected tropical storm wind probabilites for Gustav:

Also

Gustav weakened to a tropical storm overnight as it encountered the mountains of Haiti. It also moved very slowly, but has resumed a slow (5-mph) trek to the northwest this morning. At 8 a.m., the center of Gustav was located near 18.8 N and 73.5 W. Sustained winds were down to 60-mph and central pressure was 998 MB (29.47"). Intensity models still mostly expect Gustav to become a major hurricane as it moves through the Gulf of Mexico. Track projections have remained fairly unchanged over the past 12-hours, with the central Gulf coast and Louisiana appearing most likely landfall candidates. However, projections this far out are usually 200-300 miles off, so I wouldn't put too much stock in them at this point.

The key to Gustav's future behavior rests on several elements. One, how strongly and how far west will the high pressure building over the northern Gulf extend? Second, will a cool front and high pressure area expected to move south next week over the Plains, nudge the Gulf high eastward and produce enough weakness in the high pressure to send Gustav north before reaching the western Gulf? Third, how much will the storm intensify when it reaches the Gulf? All of these will affect Gustav's future path. Below is the latest model arrays (courtesy of the South Florida Water Management District) and a seven-day weather map projection, showing the pressure patterns alluded to above:

Gustav strengthened into a Category 1 hurricane overnight with additional intensification possible as upper-level conditions become more favorable. Unfortunately, current model trends are increasingly leaning towards a more westerly path as high pressure builds north of the storm. If this trend continues, then the storm will be in the southeast Gulf of Mexico by late Saturday or Sunday.

At 8 a.m. today, Gustav was located near 17.5 N and 72.0 W. The hurricane was heading northwest at 9-mph with a gradual decrease in forward motion expected and turn to a west-northwest path anticipated. Sustained winds were up to 90-mph and central barometric pressure was down to 981 MB (28.97").

Below is the latest model array, courtesy of the South Florida Water Management District::

Also below is the three-day map projection, courtesy of the National Hurricane Center: